To what extent have economic policies in South and Southeast Asia prioritized short-term growth over long-term sustainability and equity, and how has this trade-off fueled mass unrest? How does rising youth unemployment correlate with political instability in countries like Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, and what systemic reforms are necessary to address this intersection? How are India-China geopolitical tensions influencing domestic responses to uprisings in smaller states like Sri Lanka and Nepal, and to what extent are these powers exacerbating or mitigating internal instability?
Recent years have seen large-scale uprisings across South and Southeast Asia-including Sri Lanka’s Aragalaya protests, Bangladesh’s July 2024 uprising, Nepal’s Gen-Z revolution, and Indonesia’s anti-corruption protests. While the immediate triggers differ, these movements share deep roots in economic despair, governance failures, corruption, and generational demands for accountability.
Economic Crises and Inequality
➤ Sri Lanka: Unsustainable fiscal policies led to a historic debt default, soaring inflation, shortages, and economic contraction.
➤ Bangladesh: Despite strong growth, widening inequality and 13.54% youth unemployment fuel discontent.
➤ Nepal: Youth unemployment exceeds 20%; public anger grows over elite extravagance amid hardship.
➤ Indonesia: Rising food inflation and austerity deepen economic anxieties underlying protests against police brutality.
Governance Failures and Corruption: Entrenched elites and dynastic politics have eroded public trust:
Sri Lanka’s Rajapaksa family symbolizes authoritarian corruption,
Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina regime marked by nepotism and cronyism.
Nepal’s political class widely discredited amid social media bans and violent protests. Indonesia grapples with police impunity and elite privilege.
Youth and Social Media Mobilization
Young people and students lead demands for meritocracy, transparency, and fairness. Social media acts as both mobilization tool and target of state repression, often intensifying protests.
Geopolitical Ramifications: India-China rivalry shapes regional responses:
India’s financial support deepens influence in Sri Lanka amid Chinese reluctance on debt restructuring.
• Bangladesh’s unrest may force recalibration towards Western and regional powers.
Nepal’s instability invites competing Indian and Chinese influence.
Recommendations
Economic Reforms and Social Safety Nets
*Implement transparent debt restructuring mechanisms, prioritizing fiscal sustainability.
*Enhance youth employment programs and reduce economic inequality.
*Expand social safety nets to mitigate inflation impacts and food insecurity.
Governance and Anti-Corruption Measures
• Strengthen institutions to combat corruption, nepotism, and abuse of power.
* Promote political reforms to dismantle dynastic rule and increase accountability.
* Ensure protection of civil liberties, including freedom of expression and assembly.
Engage Youth and Leverage Digital Platforms
• Involve youth in policy dialogue and decision-making processes.
*Use social media responsibly to foster transparent communication and discourage censorship that may provoke unrest.
Geopolitical Strategy
• Encourage multilateral cooperation on economic and political stability, avoiding zero-sum regional rivalries.
*Support balanced foreign aid and investment that reinforce bi domestic reforms rather than deepen dependency.
South and Southeast Asia stand at a crossroads. The success or failure of recent protest movements will shape the region’s trajectory towards either increased accountability and prosperity or continued repression and instability. Responsive, inclusive, and transparent policymaking is critical to addressing root causes and restoring public trust.
K.M. Arshad 15 October, The Daily Star